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After living in the Coastal Bend for thirty years now, there is one dominant theme in every hurricane season I have been a part of since 1981. There is a common thread among most of the tropical activity that has affected Corpus Christi and the middle Texas Coast. Nearly all of the storms that have made a direct hit here were weak and did little to no damage while the ones that ended up being destructive hurricanes hit elsewhere on the Texas coast and had little to no impact on us. Residents that live in the Coastal Bend continue to be very lucky when it comes to hurricane activity. In the midst of the escalating global warming controversy the previous 15 years have been more active than any other 15-year period, going back to 1886, yet it continues to be mainly quiet here once again. No named storms made landfall last year on the Texas Coast, although tropical storm Hermine came ashore very close to Brownsville on September 7th. There were no hurricane landfalls on the Gulf coast at all in 2010. The Coastal Bend was once again extremely fortunate in 2010!

The 2010 hurricane season was seemingly very quiet because there were remarkably no hurricane landfalls. However, the 2010 hurricane season was the third busiest season when considering all named storms and the second busiest season on record when taking into account hurricanes. We had nineteen (19) named storms from Alex to Tomas, of which twelve (12) reached hurricane strength and five (5) were major hurricanes. There were several storms and hurricanes in the Southern Gulf, but all of the threats were from near Brownsville southward to the Yucatan peninsula. (see map above). The season got off to a slow start as there were only two named storms by August 1st. Activity quickly picked up, though, and there were an almost unbelievable eight named storms in September alone. The last storm of the season, Tomas, didn't end until November 7th . The primary reasons for the large amount of hurricane activity were persistent relatively weak upper level easterly winds caused by La Niña and warmer than normal Atlantic Basin water temperatures. It's too bad all seasons couldn't be a "gentle giant" like this one was.

The Colorado State Forecast team of Dr. Bill Gray and Dr. Phil Klotzbach are predicting an above-average 2011 hurricane season. Their forecast for this year is largely based on the premise that La Niña, while weakening in the Pacific Ocean, will not turn into El Niño conditions before the season ends combined with warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean - the breeding grounds for most storms - will persist. The team predicts 16 named storms with 9 expected to become hurricanes, and of those, 5 developing into major hurricanes. A major hurricane is a category 3-4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The long term averages are 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and two major hurricanes per year. They are also forecasting this year a 72% probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline, compared with the long term average of 52%. Overall, the forecast team predicts tropical cyclone activity for 2011 will be 170% of the average season. Of more importance to the Coastal Bend, the team predicts a 47% chance that a major hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast from Florida west to Brownsville compared to the long-term average of only 30%. It is always important to remember that no matter how many or how few storms we have, it only takes one storm making landfall here to cause a huge problem for us.

Dr. Gray is also one of the world's leading authorities on the relationship between "global warming" and hurricane seasonal activity. He does not attribute changes in recent and projected Atlantic hurricane activity to human-induced global warming. Gray has stated that "although global surface temperatures have increased over the last 30 years, there is no reliable data available to indicate increased hurricane frequency or intensity in any of the globe's seven tropical cyclone basins, except for the Atlantic over the last 14 years." There is no scientific study of tropical cyclones that has a valid physical theory as to why hurricane intensity and frequency would necessarily be altered significantly by small amounts of global mean temperature change. Dr. Gray also expects us to be in a period of above average hurricane activity for the next 10 to 15 years.

As we prepare for this hurricane season, please keep in mind that no one really knows when a storm will form or where it will go before it develops. It is so very important to be prepared and have a family plan of action. You have already taken the first step by coming to our website to check out this hurricane guide. Being informed and having a plan will help you decide whether to stay or leave, and keep you from getting caught in the middle, like so many people did in Celia in 1970, Allen in 1980, Gilbert in 1988, Bret in 1999, and Rita in 2005. Experience is not a good teacher when it comes to hurricanes because all storms are different. Perhaps that is why they are given names and seem to take on their own unique personality like people. This is why KRIS Communications has put together the most comprehensive hurricane awareness guide available anywhere in South Texas. You and your family should spend some time becoming familiar with all of the information in this year's guide. Rest assured that when the tropics become active, you can watch KRIS 6 News, KZTV Action 10 News, and KDF for the most accurate information on where the storm is, where it is going, how confident we are it will hit, and most importantly, the steps you and your family should be taking. It is always important to get the facts and not listen to rumors. While away from your TV you can log on to our website. If you and your family have a plan of action then we will all be a lot safer when the threat of a hurricane eventually becomes a reality, and remember, don't be scared, be prepared!

Stay tuned,
Dale Nelson

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